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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|